After spending almost all of 2018 in bearish territory, gold’s true fundamentals* (as indicated by my Gold True Fundamentals Model – GTFM) have spent all of this year to date in bullish territory. Refer to the following chart comparison of the GTFM (the blue line) and the US$ gold price (the red line) for the details.

A market’s true fundamentals are akin to pressure. Due to sentiment and other influences a market can move counter to the fundamentals for a while, but if the fundamentals continue to act in a certain direction then the pressure will build up until the price eventually falls into line. Also, even if it isn’t sufficient to bring about a significant rally, the upward pressure stemming from a bullish fundamental backdrop will tend to create a price floor. That’s what happened with gold during March and April.

As was the case when I last addressed this topic at the TSI Blog, the most important GTFM input that is yet to turn bullish is the yield curve (as indicated by the 10year-2year and 10year-3month yield spreads). This input shifting from bearish to bullish requires a reversal in the yield curve from flattening (long-term rates falling relative to short-term rates) to steepening (long-term rates rising relative to short-term rates). If the reversal is driven primarily by falling short-term interest rates it indicates a boom-to-bust transition, such as occurred in 2000 and 2007, whereas if the reversal is driven primarily by rising long-term interest rates it points to increasing inflation expectations.

As illustrated below, at the end of last week there was no evidence of such a trend change in the 10year-3month yield spread.

To get a gold bull market there probably will have to be a sustained trend reversal in the yield curve. I think that will happen during the second half of this year, but it hasn’t happened yet. Also, when it does happen my guess is that it will be driven by rising long-term interest rates (indicating rising inflation expectations), not falling short-term interest rates. That’s an out-of-consensus view right now, because inflation expectations are low/falling and almost everyone has come to the conclusion that an aggressive Fed rate-cutting campaign will get underway in the near future.

Another GTFM input that could shift from bearish to bullish in the near future and thus add to the upward pressure on the gold price is the currency exchange rate input. At the moment, all it would take to bring about this shift is a weekly close in the Dollar Index about half a point below last week’s close.

My guess is that there will be some corrective activity in the gold market over the coming 1-2 weeks, but as long as the GTFM stays in bullish territory the fundamentals-related upward pressure should enable the gold price to make new multi-year highs within the next few months.

*I use the term “true fundamentals” to distinguish the actual fundamental drivers of the gold price from the drivers that are regularly cited by gold-market analysts and commentators. According to many pontificators on the gold market, gold’s fundamentals include the volume of metal flowing into the inventories of gold ETFs, China’s gold imports, the volume of gold being transferred out of the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, the amount of “registered” gold at the COMEX, India’s monsoon and wedding seasons, jewellery demand, the amount of gold being bought/sold by various central banks, changes in mine production and scrap supply, and wild guesses regarding JP Morgan’s exposure to gold. These aren’t true fundamental price drivers. At best, they are distractions.

In 1961, Deng Xiao Ping uttered what is perhaps his most famous quotation: “I don’t care if it’s a white cat or a black cat. It’s a good cat so long as it catches mice.” This was interpreted to mean that being economically successful is more important than being loyal to any particular ideology.

Deng’s view that having a productive economy was more important than adhering rigidly to theories that were failing in practice brought him into conflict with Mao Tse Tung. It could be argued that Deng was more practical than Mao in that he was prepared to allow/encourage some elements of a market economy, although if the primary objective is holding onto political power then what’s practical is not necessarily what’s best for the country.

From a purely political perspective, Mao was practical. His policies generally had disastrous economic effects, but in addition to maintaining power he was able to stay popular with China’s peasant class (his political support base). He did this by creating the impression that there was always a revolution — of one form or another — to be fought. There were always enemies that had to be defeated, mountains that had to be climbed and sacrifices that had to be made in the present in order to set the stage for a brighter future.

The revolutionary feeling was sustained via a series of dramatic programs and policy shifts, chief among them being:

1. “The Hundred Flowers Campaign” of 1956-1957: Mao encouraged differing opinions on how China should be governed and even permitted public criticism of the Communist Party leadership.

2. “The Anti-Rightist Movement” of 1957-1959: Those who accepted Mao’s invitation to express anti-communist opinions under the “Hundred Flowers Campaign” were eliminated (purged, imprisoned, killed). Quite likely, the “Hundred Flowers Campaign” was just a ruse to identify anyone who could possibly be a threat to Mao.

3. “The Great Leap Forward” of 1958-1962: A 5-year plan focusing on the collectivisation of agriculture that caused widespread food shortages and resulted in the death of tens of millions of people (estimates of the famine-related death toll range from 20M to 45M). This disaster created the first serious rift between Mao and Deng, which eventually led to Deng being purged from the Communist party in the early days of the “Cultural Revolution”.

4. “The Cultural Revolution” of 1966 through to Mao’s death in 1976: Ostensibly a movement to topple the “ruling class”, spread power more evenly and stamp out counter-revolutionary activities, this was Mao’s most blatant attempt to keep China in a perpetual state of revolution. During the “Cultural Revolution”, anyone considered to have skills above those of the average person became a likely target for persecution. In addition, formal education all but ceased, countless works of art and historical buildings were destroyed, and Mao’s “Little Red Book” of quotations effectively became the bible. The result was social and economic chaos.

Fortunately for China, Deng was able to gain control of the Communist Party following Mao’s death. The reforms he implemented showed that even a modicum of economic freedom can go a long way towards improving living standards.

Interestingly, one of the most successful reforms of the Deng era was not the brainchild of Deng, but was, instead, developed by local farmers who were desperate to escape the poverty that collectivised agriculture had imposed upon them. In much the same way that America’s Pilgrims adopted private ownership of farmland in response to a communal system’s failure to produce sufficient food, the inhabitants of one small Chinese village decided, in 1978, to experiment with a new system under which individuals and families would have ownership of farmland. The experiment was a huge success, and was subsequently tried — also with great success — in some other villages. After learning of these experiments and the resultant large increases in agricultural productivity, Deng openly praised the participants and encouraged the nationwide adoption of the ‘new’ system. It is almost certain that the government’s reaction would have been very different if Mao had still been in power.

China’s political leaders between Deng Xiao Ping and Xi Jin Ping, the current leader, were really just place fillers. It’s clear that Xi is the most important leader of the Communist Party of China (CPC) since Deng.

Xi seems to be more like Mao than Deng, in that he places the supremacy of the Party above all other considerations and puts a strong emphasis on Communist ideology. He has made this clear in numerous speeches. For example:

At the October 2017 19th Party Congress, he said: “Government, military, society and schools, north, south, east and west, the Party is the leader of everything.”

And in March-2018, Xinhua (China’s official state-run press agency) quoted him as saying: “The Party exercises overall leadership over all areas of endeavor in every part of the country. A primary task of deepening reform of the Party and state institutions is to strengthen the CPC’s leadership in every sector.”

The phrase “capitalism with Chinese characteristics” is not used in China, at least not by any high-ranking members of the CPC. Only Western pundits believe that China is shifting towards capitalism. In China the political system is often referred to as “socialism with Chinese characteristics”. Here are two examples from a Xi speech given last year at the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) Plenary Session:

“[Party members should] understand the dialectical relationship between the grand vision of Communism and socialism with Chinese characteristics.”

“We cannot indulge ourselves in empty talk without working for the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics and national rejuvenation. We can neither afford to lose the grand vision because realizing Communism is a long process.”

And here’s an excerpt from a Xinhua article that quotes Xi making the same point:

“The purpose of reviewing the Communist Manifesto is to understand and grasp the power of the truth of Marxism and write a new chapter of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, Xi said. It’s necessary to “apply the scientific principles and the spirit of The Communist Manifesto to the overall planning of activities related to the great struggle, great project, great cause, and great dream,” he said. More efforts should be made to develop Marxism in the 21st century and in contemporary China, and write a new chapter of adapting Marxism to the Chinese context, Xi said.”

Like Mao, Xi is attempting to galvanise support behind himself and the Party (Xi is now defined as the “core” of the Party) by promoting the idea that China and the Chinese people are under threat. In this regard he is being helped by having a ready-made enemy in the form of a US government that clearly is trying to contain China both economically and militarily. Moreover, the “trade war” and the US government restrictions on US corporations doing business with Huawei make Xi look prescient, because he has warned for many years that this sort of thing could happen and therefore that it was dangerous for Chinese manufacturers to rely on imported technology.

Unfortunately for Xi, innovation, which he correctly perceives to be lacking in China, won’t happen at the command of government.

Also like Mao, Xi does not tolerate any dissension. All views must be consistent with the goal of having a population unified in its beliefs in “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and the primacy of the Party in all aspects of life. Hence the draconian treatment of millions of Muslims in Xinjiang Province, the severe policing of opinions expressed in social media and the setting-up of the world’s largest domestic surveillance network.

In a way, China has come full circle. However, Xi has far greater technological and economic resources at his disposal than Mao could have ever dreamed of.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent TSI commentary]

Keynesian economic theory is useless if the aim is to understand how the world of human production and consumption works, but it is useful when attempting to figure out the policies that will be implemented in the future. The reason is that government and central bank policy-making is dominated by Keynesian ideas.

One of the most prominent Keynesian ideas is that changes in aggregate demand drive the economy. This leads to the belief that the government can keep the economy on a steady growth path by boosting its deficit-spending (thus adding to aggregate demand) during periods when economic activity is too slow and running surpluses (thus subtracting from aggregate demand) during periods when economic activity is too fast.

To further explain using an analogy, in the Keynesian world the economy is akin to a bathtub filled with an amorphous liquid called “aggregate demand”. When the liquid level gets too low it’s the job of the government and the central bank to top it up, and when the liquid level gets too high it’s the job of the government and the central bank to drain it off. Keynesian economics therefore has been called “bathtub economics”. The real-world economy is nothing like a bathtub, but that doesn’t seem to matter.

In any case, the point we now want to make is that in the US the traditional Keynesian guidelines are no longer being followed. Gone are the days of ramping-up government deficit-spending in response to economic weakness and running surpluses or at least reducing deficits when the economy is strong. These days the US federal government applies non-stop Keynesian-style stimulus and regularly exhorts the central bank to do the same. So, debt-financed tax cuts were implemented in 2017 when the economy seemed to be performing well, and now, with the unemployment rate at a generational low, the stock market near an all-time high and GDP growth chugging along at around 3%/year, the US government is planning a US$2 trillion infrastructure spending spree and the executive branch of the government is demanding that the Fed cut interest rates from levels that are already very low by historical standards.

In other words, although the ‘Keynesian bathtub’ appears to be almost over-flowing, the US government is pushing for more demand-boosting actions. The strategy is now full-on ‘stimulus’ all the time. That’s part of why it doesn’t make sense to be anything other than long-term bullish on “inflation” and long-term bearish on Treasury bonds.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent TSI commentary]

Here is our monthly update on what’s happening on the monetary inflation front in a few different regions/countries.

The G2 (US plus euro-zone) monetary inflation rate dropped to a 10-year low in March-2019 and has now spent 19 months below the boom-bust threshold of 6%. Refer to the following chart for details.

The low rate of G2 monetary inflation stems from the very low rate of money-supply growth in the US. During March the year-over-year (YOY) rate of growth in euro supply was 7.6%, which although well down from a 2014 peak of 14% is still quite high. The rate of growth in US$ supply, however, was only 1.8%.

The slow (by modern standards) rate of G2 money-supply growth boosts the risk that a global recession will begin in 2019, but, as noted in the past, the monetary inflation rate is a long-term indicator that leads economic and financial-market conditions by amounts of time that can vary substantially from one cycle to the next. When attempting to predict the start time of the next recession we therefore rely on other leading indicators, three of which were discussed in last week’s Interim Update.

Australia’s monetary inflation rate has picked up a little over the past few months, but the country remains on the verge of monetary deflation.

The very slow money-supply growth has had an effect on Australia’s property market, in that over the past 12 months residential property prices have fallen by an average of 6.9% on a nationwide basis and 10.9% in Sydney (the largest and most expensive city in Australia). Refer to the article posted HERE for more detail.

Actually, the decline to near zero in Australia’s monetary inflation rate is both a cause and an effect of the slight (to date) deflation of the property investment bubble. Commercial banks have been making it more difficult for house buyers to obtain credit, leading to a pullback in prices and a slowdown in the pace at which new money is created.

In January-2019 the year-over-year (YOY) growth rate of China’s M1 money supply dropped to its lowest level since 1989. There was an insignificant up-tick in February, but the recent attempts by China’s government to promote credit expansion started to ‘bear fruit’ in March. Refer to the following chart for details.

We wonder if this is too little too late to kick-start a new surge in the demand for industrial commodities.

Hong Kong hasn’t escaped the general monetary-inflation slowdown. As illustrated below, the YOY rate of growth in HK’s M2 money supply has languished near a 10-year low in the 1%-4% range over the past several months.

Remarkably, HK’s low monetary inflation rate is yet to have a pronounced effect on the world’s most expensive real estate. Property prices dropped in HK during August-December of last year, but they rose in January and the majority view is that a rise to new highs is in store.

Due to the monetary backdrop, we think there’s a high risk of a double-digit decline in HK property prices over the next 12 months.

Almost everyone knows that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has pumped a huge amount of money into the Japanese economy, so the lack of “price inflation” in Japan is something of a quandary. Analysts have let their imaginations run wild in an attempt to explain this strange set of circumstances, and the situation in Japan has even been cited as proof that increasing the money supply doesn’t cause prices to rise. However, anyone who didn’t blindly assume that the BOJ’s actions were leading to rapid money-supply growth and instead took the trouble to check what was actually happening to Japan’s money supply would quickly realise that explaining Japan’s lack of “price inflation” requires no stretch of the imagination. The fact is that Japan’s monetary inflation rate over the past 25 years has been consistent with an “inflation” rate of approximately zero.

The persistently low rate of monetary inflation in Japan is illustrated by the following chart. The chart shows that the YOY rate of increase in Japan’s M2 money supply averaged about 2% over the past 27 years and about 2.5% over the past 10 years. It is currently about 2.4%. Assuming productivity growth of 2%-3%, these money-supply figures are consistent with a flat general price level.

Note that QE in Japan is different from QE in the US. When the Fed implements QE it boosts the supply of bank reserves and the supply of money on a one-for-one basis (bank reserves aren’t counted in the money supply), but the BOJ’s QE adds far more to bank reserves than to the money supply. Note also that the Fed’s QE created a lot less “price inflation” than many people were expecting for the reasons outlined HERE.

The Japanese economy has benefited from the persistently slow rate of monetary inflation and the resulting stability of the currency, but at the same time it has been hurt by the massive diversion of resources to the government. The net result is an economy that isn’t exactly vibrant, but also isn’t that bad.

To summarise the above information, the pace at which new money is being created around the world remains unusually slow.