[This blog post is a brief excerpt from a recent commentary at https://speculative-investor.com/]

A major market-moving event for the US cannabis sector will arrive soon. We are referring to the upcoming administrative hearing to determine whether recreational marijuana will follow in the footsteps of medical marijuana and be moved from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3 under the Controlled Substances Act. The hearing will start on 29th June and finish no later than 15th July, potentially paving the way for a decision by the end of August. We expect the result to be positive, that is, we expect that recreational marijuana will be moved to Schedule 3, thus completely eliminating the excess federal taxation on state-legal cannabis sellers and propelling the associated stock prices to much higher levels. However, a positive outcome is not guaranteed.

The following weekly chart shows that the US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) gained more than 11% last week. Part of this gain would have been related to anticipation of a positive rescheduling decision, but the bulk of it was due to a surge in the price of a single stock: Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF). The price of TCNNF, one of MSOS’s two largest holdings, rocketed upward late last week in reaction to news that it would soon up-list onto the NYSE. This means that Trulieve will be the first US cannabis company to list on a major US exchange.

Note that the TSI Stocks List has indirect exposure to TCNNF via MSOS.

Trulieve has achieved its up-listing by restructuring its business to separate medical sales from recreational sales. Other US cannabis companies could follow suit, but we expect that most of them will wait for the outcome of the above-mentioned hearing. The reason is that there will be no need to restructure in order to up-list if recreational cannabis is moved to Schedule 3.

We continue to expect that if cannabis is fully rescheduled, MSOS will rise quickly to the US$9-$10 area. In the meantime, resistance at US$6.00-$6.50 probably will limit the upside.

[This blog post is a brief excerpt from a commentary published at speculative-investor.com on 31st May]

In the 27th April Weekly Update we noted that the oil price had peaked in March and probably was in a downward trend, but that the gasoline price was still rising. We went on to write that if the oil price continued to trend downward (as expected), then the gasoline price would follow. The gasoline price extended its upward trend until mid-May, but it has since begun to follow the oil price downward and last week generated evidence of an intermediate-term top by breaking below its 50-day MA. What’s likely to happen from here?

What happens in the near-term will be determined to a large degree by developments in the Middle East, which remain unpredictable. However, while there is a risk that re-escalation will push the gasoline price back up to near its May peak within the next few weeks, it’s likely that the May peak will turn out to be the peak for the year and that the price will be much lower by the final quarter.

Interestingly, oil and gasoline prices are adhering closely to the 2022 price pattern that was a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war. As noted on the following daily chart, in 2022 the gasoline price initially peaked in March with the oil price but then made a new high in June before commencing a major decline. In 2026 we have essentially the same pattern.

By the way, there is a strong tendency for the gasoline market to make a seasonal low late in the year. The vertical lines on the chart indicate these seasonal lows.

In summary, our base-case scenario is that the gasoline price in the US is now in an intermediate-term downward trend that should lead to much lower prices within the next seven months.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a commentary posted at https://speculative-investor.com/ last week]

Despite all the AI hype, general mining stocks as represented by XME have massively outperformed the tech-heavy NASDAQ100 ETF (QQQ) since late-2024. In fact, the first of the following daily charts shows that XME approximately doubled relative to QQQ from its December-2024 low to its January-2026 high, while the second chart covers a longer period and puts XME’s recent relative strength into perspective. The message of the longer-term chart is that the rally in the XME/QQQ ratio from its December-2024 low potentially is the final part of a major base that began to form in 2020. This interpretation suggests that XME could double again relative to QQQ over the coming 1-2 years.

The above interpretation of the long-term chart pattern makes sense, for these four reasons:

First, the monetary inflation moonshot of 2020-2021, the trend towards on-shoring prompted by security-of-supply concerns and the long-term acceleration in government spending set in motion by the COVID lockdowns has created an economic backdrop that should continue to favour the producers of physical commodities.

Second, the companies that supply the materials needed to construct the physical AI infrastructure stand to benefit more than most software creators from the AI boom. This is because for these companies (the suppliers of the materials) the barriers to entry are relatively high and, due to physical limitations and regulations, it usually takes a long time to increase supply in response to growth in demand. During the time between growth in demand and supply catching up, there tend to be large gains in prices and profit margins.

Third, three of the past four cyclical upswings in the XME/QQQ ratio have lasted at least 2.5 years, suggesting that the current upswing won’t end any sooner than mid-2027.

Fourth, the upward trend in the breadth and intensity of military conflict that began in 2022 is bullish for inflation and commodities.

The upshot is that the decline in the XME/QQQ ratio from its January-2026 peak probably is just a correction within a major upward trend that will continue for at least another 12 months.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary at https://speculative-investor.com/]

In January of last year, we presented a list of items that would support the coming bull market in commodities. We subsequently reiterated and added to this list. Due to the events of the past two months another addition is appropriate, but to refresh memories here are the points mentioned previously:

1) Investments in AI-related datacentres and the associated infrastructure (power plants, pipelines, transmission lines, transportation services) will add significantly to commodity demand for years to come, even if the stock prices of the biggest spenders (the so-called “hyperscalers”) have reached their peaks. This is based on the datacentres already under construction and planned to commence construction.

This AI-related investment continues to have a very significant effect on the US economy. It is, in fact, the main reason that the US economy continues to grow.

2) The commercial demand for commodities will be boosted by the rebuilding of Ukraine, the rebuilding of Gaza and the construction of the massive Yarlung Tsangpo Hydroelectric Project in China.

3) Government trade policy is likely to put upward pressure on commodity prices in some parts of the world, most notably in the US, by making the trading of commodities less efficient. For example, whereas previously it would have made sense to import a commodity rather than produce it locally, due to tariffs it could make more sense to produce locally. However, it generally takes several years to build a new mine and the mine-building process itself consumes large quantities of commodities.

4) The combination of a weaker US$ and increased government spending around the world will both support the commercial demand for commodities and boost the speculative demand for commodities as an inflation hedge. The buying of commodity futures and physical commodities to hedge against currency depreciation contributed to the commodity bull market of the 1970s.

5) Even though investment in ‘renewable’ energy such as solar and wind is now being de-emphasised or actively discouraged by the US government, there continues to be massive investment in these forms of energy around the world and especially in China. This will boost the commercial demand for industrial metals.

6) The gold bull market that began in late-2022 projected a subsequent commodity bull market (commodity bull markets are just gold bull markets that have broadened). We have conclusive evidence in the price action that a commodity bull market began last year, and cyclical bull markets in commodities usually last at least two years.

The above points remain valid, and we can add the US-Israel-Iran war to the List. This war will fuel the commodity bull market in these ways:

a) Due to the damage it has caused to oil and LNG production facilities, the prices of oil and LNG will be higher than otherwise would have been the case over the next 1-2 years.

b) There will be increased commodity demand associated with massive rebuilding works in Iran and the rectification of the energy infrastructure that has been damaged throughout the Gulf region.

c) By creating a temporary shortage of fertiliser and raising the price of fertiliser, it will result in less fertiliser being used this year, leading to lower crop yields and higher agricultural commodity prices next year.

d) By reducing the supply of sulphur and thus boosting its price, the costs of fertiliser production, mining and petroleum refining have increased. This will lead to higher prices for grains, industrial metals and petroleum products.

e) The need to replenish the missiles, bombs and other weapons/equipment used by the armed forces will significantly add to demand for some commodities, chief among them being Rare Earth Elements (REEs).

f) US government spending will be hundreds of billions of dollars more than otherwise would have been the case. In essence, the US government has broken a lot of windows and over the coming year will spend a lot of money to get back to where it was prior to the war. This non-productive public-sector spending will elevate prices and increase the private sector’s desire to own commodities or the stocks of commodity producers as a hedge.

Further to the above, the commodity bull market is very much intact and looks set to extend into 2027-2028. Consequently, significant corrections in the stocks of commodity-related equities should be viewed as buying opportunities.