[This blog post is an excerpt from a commentary published last week at www.speculative-investor.com]

Jurisdictional risk materialises with no warning

Jurisdictional risk is any additional risk that arises from doing business in a foreign country. The problem with this type of risk is that when it materialises, it does so without warning.

As exemplified by two recent events, jurisdictional risk for gold mining companies is relatively high among the countries of West Africa (the countries highlighted on the following map). The first of these events was a statement in early-October from the president of Burkina Faso that the government may withdraw existing permits for gold mines. This statement affected a number of Western gold mining companies, including TSI stock selection Fortuna Mining (FSM). FSM currently generates about 25% of its gold production in Burkina Faso.

The aforementioned statement by Burkina Faso’s president caused a 10% single-day plunge in the FSM stock price. The company put out a press release that soothed fears and the stock price quickly recovered, but the risk remains and could move back to centre-stage at any time.

The second of these events occurred early this week when Australia-listed Resolute Mining (RSG.AX), which is not a current TSI stock, advised that its CEO and two other employees had been detained by the government of Mali due to a disagreement over the government’s share of revenue from RSG’s Syama gold mine. In response to this news the RSG stock price immediately dropped by around 30% and, as illustrated by the following daily chart, is down by more than 50% from last month’s high. At the time of writing the employees are still being held hostage by the Mali government, which apparently is demanding a $160M payment.

In response to the RSG news, the stocks of some other gold mining companies with substantial exposure to Mali were hit hard. The hit to the B2Gold (BTG) stock price was relatively mild, however, even though the company’s most important currently-producing mine (Fekola) is located in Mali. We assume that this is because the company negotiated a new agreement with the Mali government only two months ago.

When nothing untoward happens in a country with high jurisdictional risk over a long period, investors tend to forget about the risk and the risk discount factored into the stock prices of companies operating in that country becomes small. As mentioned at the start of this discussion, the problem is that when this type of risk materialises, which it eventually almost always does, there is never any warning and therefore never time to get out prior to the price collapse. This is not a reason to avoid completely the stocks of companies operating in high-risk countries, but it is a reason to only buy such stocks when the risk discount is high and to manage the risk via appropriate position sizing and scaling out into strength.

Balance sheet risk materialises WITH warning

Unlike jurisdictional risk, balance sheet risk doesn’t suddenly appear out of nowhere. The signs of trouble are almost always obvious for a long period before the ‘crunch’. If management doesn’t take decisive action soon enough to recapitalise the company, there will no longer be an opportunity to recapitalise in a way that doesn’t destroy a huge amount of shareholder value. On Wednesday of this week the shareholders of i-80 Gold (IAU.TO) learned this lesson.

The IAU stock price was down 58% to a new all-time low on Wednesday 13th November in reaction to the company reporting its financial situation, operating results and a new development plan. In a nutshell, it was an acknowledgement that the company is under severe financial stress. However, this should not have come as a big surprise given that the company reported a working capital deficit of US$60M more than three months ago and has a loss-making business, meaning that the working capital deficit was bound to increase in the absence of new long-term financing.

A strong balance sheet is especially important for gold mining companies that either are in the mine construction phase or have commenced production but are not cash-flow positive. That’s because such companies need a sizable ‘cash/financing cushion’ to stay in business. For exploration-stage companies, having such a cushion is not as critical because these companies can survive by either temporarily stopping their exploration work or doing the occasional small equity financing.

The crux of the matter is that close attention should be paid to the balance sheet, which forms part of the information that public companies issue on a quarterly basis.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a commentary published at www.speculative-investor.com last week]

This is our annual reminder that gold mining stocks should always be viewed as short-term or intermediate-term trades, never as long-term investments. If you want to make a long-term investment in gold, then buy gold bullion.

The reason is illustrated by the following weekly chart. The chart shows more than 100 years of history of gold mining stocks relative to gold bullion, with gold mining stocks represented by the Barrons Gold Mining Index (BGMI) prior to 1995 and the HUI thereafter. The overarching message here is that gold mining stocks have been trending downward relative to gold bullion since 1968, that is, for 56 years and counting.

We’ve explained in the past that the multi-generational downward trend in the gold mining sector relative to gold is a function of the current monetary system and therefore almost certainly will continue for as long as the current monetary system remains in place. The crux of the matter is that as well as resulting in more mal-investment within the broad economy than the pre-1971 monetary system, the current monetary system results in more mal-investment within the gold mining sector.

The difference between the gold mining sector and most other parts of the economy is that the biggest booms in the gold mining sector (the periods when the bulk of the mal-investment occurs) generally coincide with busts in the broad economy, while the biggest busts in the gold mining sector generally coincide with booms in the broad economy. The developed world, including the US and much of Europe, entered the bust phase of the economic cycle in 2022 and the bust is not close to being over. This means that we are in the midst of a multi-year period when a boom should be underway in the gold mining sector.

To date, the gold sector’s upward trend from its 2022 low hasn’t had boom-like price action. The main reason is that the current economic bust is progressing more slowly than is typical, largely because of the efforts of the US government to boost economic activity via recession-like deficit spending and the parallel efforts of both the Treasury and the Fed to boost financial market liquidity. A related reason is that during the economic bust to date the broad stock market has performed unusually well. This has meant more competition for the attentions of speculators and investors. The gold sector has been generating good operating results and stock market performance, but so have many other sectors.

We expect that over the next 12 months the gold mining sector will continue to demonstrate strong earnings growth while most other sectors see flat or declining earnings as the economy slides into recession. This contrast should lead to boom-like price action in the gold sector. In fact, we think that the HUI could trade north of 600 next year while remaining in its long-term downward trend relative to gold bullion.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary at www.speculative-investor.com]

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are espousing policies that will be bearish for the US$ and bullish for gold. This means that regardless of what it turns out to be, the outcome of the November-2024 Presidential Election will be consistent with our view that the US dollar’s foreign exchange value will continue to trend downward and the US$ gold price will continue to trend upward for at least another 12 months. However, apart from having similar ramifications for the longer-term trends in the currency and gold markets, there are substantial differences between the candidates’ main policies. Let’s delve into some of the details.

Harris has talked about raising the capital gains tax rate and introducing a tax on unrealised capital gains to ensure that very wealthy taxpayers pay a minimum tax rate of 25%. If implemented, these changes would have the effect of reducing investment and therefore economic progress. Also, they would be a boon to the IRS and the private tax planning/reporting industry, because the additional complexity introduced by incorporating calculations of unrealised capital gains into taxable income would require substantial extra resources in both the government and the private sector. These extra resources wouldn’t just be non-productive, they would be counterproductive.

As an aside, when politicians introduce new taxes they usually make the assumption that the world will continue as before except with more money being paid to the government. However, taxes change behaviour, sometimes to the extent that new or increased taxes lead to a reduction in government revenue. This is exemplified by the fact that almost every country that has imposed a wealth tax has ended up scrapping the tax because it led to the exodus of capital, resulting in a weaker economy and lower revenue for the government. The reality is that while a promise to extract more money from the extremely wealthy can sound good to many voters, the wealthier a taxpayer the more mobile their wealth tends to be.

Although she has attempted to soften her stance on energy-related issues (for example, she claims to no longer favour a ban on fracking and she has stopped talking about the “Green New Deal” that she once supported), under a Harris regime it’s likely that, as part of a general increase in the amount of government regulation of business, it would be more difficult to get approvals for oil and gas projects. Also, it’s almost certain that the government would direct a lot more resources towards intermittent energy (sometimes called renewable energy). These actions would drive up the price of energy and increase the risk of energy shortages, with knock-on negative implications for the US economy.

Lastly, a Harris administration probably would prolong the Ukraine-Russia war, with devastating additional consequences for Ukraine — and potentially for all of Europe if the war is allowed to escalate — in terms of lives and infrastructure, as well as negative consequences for the US government’s budget deficit. A Trump administration, on the other hand, would be more likely to negotiate a settlement that ends the senseless destruction.

Trump is advocating lower taxes, which would be a plus if he were also advocating government spending cuts to offset the associated reduction in government revenue. However, it seems that no meaningful spending cuts are being considered. Therefore, the tax cuts would accelerate the rate of increase of the federal government’s debt, leading to higher interest rates and private-sector debt being ‘crowded out’ by government debt.

Trump also is advocating tariffs on all imports, with huge tariffs to be imposed on any imports from China. Furthermore, he has stated that he will use tariffs as a weapon against any country that acts in a way that he deems unacceptable, including against any country that attempts to move away from the US$-based international monetary system.

Tariffs that are imposed on US imports are paid by the US-based importers and would get passed on to US consumers, so an effect of the tariffs would be a sizable increase in the US cost of living. Another effect would involve the start of a process to change supply chains and relocate manufacturing in response to the sudden government-forced changes in costs. This process would be long and expensive.

There is no doubt that the Trump tariffs would lead to retaliation from other governments, with predictable effects being smaller markets and smaller profit margins for US companies exporting from the US or operating outside the US. Also, it’s likely that international trade blocs would form that excluded the US.

Most significantly from a long-term perspective, the tariffs and the threat to use tariffs as a weapon to punish governments deemed by the President to be recalcitrant would reduce the international demand for the US$ and could bring forward the demise of the current global monetary system (the Eurodollar System discussed in the 12th August Weekly Update). This is not primarily because the tariffs would lead to less international US$-denominated trading of goods and services, although they certainly would do that. Instead, it is because the non-US demand to hold US dollars is based on the US having large, liquid, open and secure markets. The US financial markets will remain large and liquid for the foreseeable future, but the international demand for the US$ will decline to the extent that these markets are no longer perceived to be open and secure.

The shift away from the US$ would occur over many years, because currently there is no alternative. However, the introduction of Trump’s tariffs would increase the urgency to establish an alternative and could have noticeable effects on the currency market as soon as next year.

By the way, although it was ineffective the Biden administration’s decision in 2022 to ban Russian banks from using the SWIFT system possibly was viewed as a ‘shot across the bow’ by many foreign governments, corporations and wealthy individuals. If Trump gets elected and does what he has said he will do with tariffs, it would be a ‘shot directly into the bow’.

Summarising the above, a Harris administration would attempt to establish higher tax rates, which would lead to reduced investment and a weaker US economy. Also, the price of energy would be higher, more resources would be directed towards inefficient sources of energy and the Ukraine-Russia war probably would either grind on or escalate. A Trump administration wouldn’t make these mistakes, but via aggressive and far-reaching tariffs it would raise the cost of living and throw the equivalent of a giant spanner into the international trading and investing works. One thing that Harris and Trump have in common is that their planned actions will ensure that the US government’s debt burden continues to increase at a rapid pace.

It’s almost as if both sides of the US political aisle have a weaker dollar and a higher gold price as unofficial goals.

The US yield curve is considered to be a good leading indicator of US recession, with an inversion of the curve invariably occurring prior to the start of a recession. However, the Wolf Street article posted HERE questions the yield curve’s reliability. The article notes that part of the US yield curve recently ‘uninverted’, which is true. What’s not true is the claim in the article that since 1998 the US yield curve failed twice by warning of recessions that didn’t occur.

According to the article, the yield curve’s 2019 inversion was a failure because even though there was a recession in 2020, the recession was the result of a pandemic and not a business cycle downturn. This is strange reasoning, to put it mildly.

The only way that you could argue logically that the yield curve’s 2019 inversion was a failure would be if you could re-run history to show that in the absence of the COVID pandemic there would not have been a recession. Since this is not possible, the 2019 inversion should not be viewed as a failure. Either it was a success or it should not be counted.

Also according to the article, there was a yield curve inversion in 1998 that was not followed by a recession.

The problem here stems from interpreting a multi-day spike into inversion territory as a recession signal. This problem goes away if you base your analysis on monthly closing or monthly average prices, which generally is what should be done with long-term indicators.

Here is a monthly chart showing that since the late-1960s every inversion of the US 10year-3month yield spread was followed by a recession. Consequently, if this cycle’s yield curve inversion does not lead to a recession then it will be the first failure of this type (the first false positive) in more than 50 years. Note, though, that the monthly chart of the 10year-3month yield spread shows that there was no yield curve inversion prior to the 1990 recession, so this could be viewed as a false negative.

Regardless of whether or not this cycle’s yield curve inversion leads to a recession, a yield curve inversion/uninversion clearly isn’t a useful trading signal. The time between the warning signal and the projected outcome is simply too long and too variable.

There are many problems with the calculation methodology of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and with the whole concept of coming up with a single number to represent the purchasing power of money. Interestingly, however, if we calculate the inflation-adjusted (‘real’) gold price by dividing the nominal US$ gold price by the US CPI, which is what we have done on the following monthly chart, we see that the result has peaked at around the same level multiple times over the past 50 years and that the current value is around this level. Does this imply that gold’s upside is capped?

It adds to the reasons that we should be cautious about gold’s short-term prospects. These reasons include the size of the speculator net-long position in gold futures, the August-September cyclical turning-point window for the gold mining sector, the likelihood of a reduced pace of US federal government spending during the months following the November-2024 election, the fact that gold’s true fundamentals are not definitively bullish, the high level of the gold/GNX ratio (gold is expensive relative to commodities in general), the extent to which the financial markets have discounted Fed rate cuts (four 0.25% Fed rate cuts are priced-in for 2024, creating the potential for a negative surprise from the Fed), and the high combined value of gold and the S&P500 Index relative to the US money supply. However, we expect that within the next 12 months the gold/CPI ratio will move well into new high territory, mainly because:

1) The US economy finally will enter the recession that has been anticipated for almost two years and that has been delayed by aggressive government spending, leading to efforts by both the Federal Reserve and the federal government to stimulate economic activity.

2) Despite the rise in government bond yields over the past few years, it is clear that neither of the major US political parties nor their presidential candidates have any concern about the level of federal government indebtedness. Putting it another way, currently there is no political will to reduce government spending. On the contrary, both presidential candidates are going down the well-worn path of trying to buy the votes of influential groups while ‘turning a blind eye’ to the government’s debts and deficits.

3) Using our own method of adjusting for the effects of inflation*, which generally will not be accurate in the short-term but should be approximately correct over periods of several years or more, the current ‘real’ gold price is a long way below its 1980 and 2011 highs (our method indicates inflation-adjusted highs of around US$5000/oz in 1980 and US$3400/oz in 2011). Refer to the following monthly chart for more detail.

So, while the proximity of the gold/CPI ratio to its long-term resistance adds to the short-term risk, this resistance probably won’t act as a ceiling for much longer.

*The theory that we apply can be summarised as follows: The percentage reduction in a currency’s purchasing power should, over the long-term, be roughly equal to the percentage increase in its supply minus the percentage increase in the combination of population and productivity.

By our reckoning, during the first half of 2022 the US economy entered the bust phase of the economic boom-bust cycle caused by monetary inflation (rapid monetary inflation causes a boom that inevitably is followed by a bust as the receding monetary tide exposes the boom-time malinvestments). The bust phase almost always culminates in a recession, although it doesn’t have to.

So far, the performances of commodity prices in both US$ terms and gold terms are consistent with an economy in the bust phase, in that last week the GSCI Spot Commodity Index (GNX) tested its cycle low in US$ terms and made a new 3-year low in gold terms. The following daily chart shows GNX in gold terms, that is, it shows the commodity/gold ratio. Booms and busts are defined by the commodity/gold ratio, with booms being multi-year periods during which the commodity/gold ratio trends upward and busts being multi-year periods during which the commodity/gold ratio trends downward.

Note that it is not unusual for the stock market, as represented by the S&P500 Index (SPX), to trend upward for a considerable time after the start of an economic bust. For example, an economic bust started in October of 2018 but the SPX didn’t peak until February of 2020. Therefore, the fact that the SPX made a new all-time high as recently as last month is not inconsistent with the US being in the bust phase of the economic cycle.

What is inconsistent with the bust phase are credit spreads, which prior to the turmoil of the past 1.5 weeks were at their boom-time lows. However, the relatively low average level of US credit spreads does not mesh with the relatively large number of corporate bankruptcies, so it’s likely that credit spreads are sending a misleading signal.

The misleading signal could be the result of junk-rated corporations delaying their re-financings for as long as possible in the hope that if they wait long enough, they will be able to re-finance at lower interest rates during the next Fed rate-cutting cycle. The problem that many of these companies will encounter is that a Fed rate-cutting cycle probably will begin near the start of a recession and a multi-quarter period during which interest rates fall on high-quality debt while rising rapidly on low-quality debt.

In a blog post earlier this year we wrote that the conflict between the signal from the commodity/gold ratio and the signal from credit spreads would have to be resolved either by credit spreads widening substantially in response to evidence of economic weakness or by the prices of industrial commodities rising substantially in response to evidence that a new boom had been ignited. Our view then and now is that the former is by far the more likely outcome. In fact, there’s a good chance that last week’s rise in the credit-spreads indicator shown on the following daily chart marked an important turning point.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary at www.speculative-investor.com]

In a blog post in February-2017, we discussed an age-old relationship between interest rates and prices. The following chart-based comparison of the T-Bond yield and the commodity/gold ratio is a pictorial representation of this relationship. At least, it was until about two years ago when a major divergence began to develop between two quantities that previously had been positively correlated. Does this mean that the age-old relationship no longer applies?

The answer is that the age-old relationship hasn’t changed. It can’t change, because it is firmly rooted in economic reality. What’s changed is that the following chart has stopped being a good way to depict the relationship.

The fundamental basis for the underlying relationship is what Keynesians call “Gibson’s Paradox”. We won’t revisit Gibson’s Paradox in this discussion except to point out that it was the name given to the observation that interest rates during the gold standard were highly correlated to wholesale prices but had little correlation to the rate of “inflation”. For a more thorough explanation, please refer to the above-linked blog post.

This excerpt from our blog post explains how the above chart relates to Gibson’s Paradox:

“The commodity/gold ratio is the price of a broad-based basket of commodities in gold terms. In essence, it is a wholesale price index using gold as the monetary measuring stick. Although gold is no longer money in the true meaning of the term (it is no longer the general medium of exchange), it is still primarily held for what can broadly be called ‘monetary purposes’ and in many respects it trades as if it were still money. According to the age-old relationship discussed above and labeled “Gibson’s Paradox” by a confused JM Keynes, the commodity/gold ratio should generally move in the same direction as risk-free interest rates.

The risk-free US interest rate that is least affected by the direct manipulation of the Fed is the yield on the 30-year T-Bond, so what we should see is a positive correlation between the commodity/gold ratio and the T-Bond yield. Or, looking at it from a different angle, what we should see is a positive correlation between the gold/commodity ratio and the T-Bond price. That’s exactly what we do see.”

Well, that was exactly what we WERE seeing until about two years ago, when the T-Bond yield began to trend upward in parallel with a downward trend in the commodity/gold ratio.

As stated near the start of this discussion, the age-old relationship between interest rates and prices (“Gibson’s Paradox”) hasn’t changed. Furthermore, the nature of gold hasn’t changed over the past two years, so the commodity/gold ratio still should be positively correlated with the risk-free interest rate, which, in turn, is determined by economy-wide time preference. What has changed is that the T-Bond yield has stopped being a good indicator of the risk-free long-term interest rate.

Looking from a different angle, the fact that the commodity/gold ratio has trended downward tells us that societal time preference (the determinant of the risk-free interest rate) has been falling, that is, that people are becoming more inclined to save and less inclined to spend. This is a global phenomenon, not a US phenomenon, but evidence in support of this can be found in the following chart of US retail sales. The chart shows that nominal (that is, not inflation-adjusted) US retail sales were only about 3.5% higher in May-2024 than they were two years’ earlier. Over the same period the US CPI rose by 7.5%, so in real terms the dollar value of US retail sales has fallen over the past two years.

The commodity/gold ratio tells us that the risk-free interest rate has fallen since the second quarter of 2022; however, the T-Bond yield is now much higher. This can’t be explained by rising inflation expectations, because the market prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) tell us that inflation expectations have fallen since the second quarter of 2022.

The only way to explain the rise in government bond yields in the face of a falling risk-free interest rate and flat-to-lower inflation expectations is declining confidence in government and/or increasing fear that the rate of growth in the supply of government debt is going to become a major problem in the not-too-distant future. That is, trends in the T-Bond yield no longer reflect trends in the risk-free interest rate due to an expanding risk premium in the T-Bond yield associated with an increasingly profligate government. This, by the way, is one of the reasons why anyone who predicts that Treasury yields are going back to anywhere near their 2020 lows will be wrong.

We now have a market analysis challenge because there is no longer an indicator of the risk-free interest rate that is independent of the gold price. At least, we can’t identify one at the moment. We can use the commodity/gold ratio to provide information regarding the interest rate that underlies all other interest rates, but we don’t have a separate indicator of the risk-free interest rate that can be used to assess whether gold is too expensive or too cheap relative to commodities.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary at www.speculative-investor.com]

With regard to the topics that we write about regularly, over the past year we have been most wrong about the stock market and the US economy. It’s true that the average stock has not fared particularly well, but we have been consistently surprised by the strength of the S&P500 Index and other large-cap-focussed indices for about 18 months now. Also, we thought that the US economy would be in recession by the end of last year and would be very weak during the first three quarters of this year, but while the US economy certainly slowed during the first half of this year it clearly has not yet entered recession territory. These mistakes are linked, in that major bearish trends in the stock market tend to encompass recessions. Today we’ll discuss, in broad-brush terms, a likely consequence of both the stock market and the US economy performing much better than we expected up until now.

In our opinion it’s not the case that the US economy has avoided a recession, but rather that the current cycle has been elongated.

We use the commodity/gold ratio (the Spot Commodity Index (GNX) divided by the US$ gold price) to define booms and busts, with booms being multi-year periods during which the ratio trends upward and busts being multi-year periods during which the ratio trends downward. The vertical lines drawn on the following GNX/gold chart mark the trend changes (shifts from boom to bust or vice versa) that have occurred since 2000.

It’s not essential that the bust phase of the cycle contains a recession, but it’s rare for a bust to end until a recession has occurred. Usually, the sequence is:

1) The commodity/gold ratio begins trending downward, marking the start of the economic bust period.

2) The economic weakness eventually becomes sufficiently pervasive and severe to qualify as a recession.

3) Near the end of the recession the commodity/gold ratio reverses upward, thus signalling the start of a boom.

Note that it is not unusual for the stock market to continue trending upward after the bust begins, but the stock market always peaks prior to a recession getting underway. For example, an economic bust began in October-2018 but the SPX continued to make new highs until early-2020.

In the current cycle the commodity/gold ratio has been trending downward since the first half of 2022, meaning that the US economy has been in the bust phase of the cycle for a little more than two years without entering recession. While this is much longer than average, it is comparable to what happened during 2005-2009. During 2005-2009, a bust began (the commodity/gold ratio commenced a multi-year downward trend) in Q4-2005, but a recession did not begin and the stock market did not peak until Q4-2007.

Evidence that the US economy is slowing is becoming clearer almost by the week, but a recession probably won’t start any sooner than September of this year and could be postponed, with help from the government and the Fed, until late this year or even early next year. This means that the coming recession probably won’t end any sooner than the second half of 2025 and could even extend into 2026, which has implications for all the financial markets. It’s the implication for the gold market that we are concerned with today.

The US$ gold price tends to peak on a multi-year basis after it has fully discounted the economic, fiscal and monetary consequences of a recession. This usually happens in the latter stages of a recession but before the recession has ended. Therefore, whereas a year ago we were thinking along the lines of the cyclical gold bull market climaxing in the second half of 2024, the current economic cycle’s elongation and the postponing of a recession probably mean that gold’s cyclical bull market will continue until at least the second half of next year.

[This blog post is a modified excerpt from a recent commentary published at www.speculative-investor.com]

The purpose of this piece is to address the misconception that the stocks of small, exploration-stage mining companies offer leveraged exposure to changes in metal prices. The reality is that they offer zero leverage to changes in metal prices. What they offer is leverage to changes in the general desire to speculate.

To explain, take the hypothetical example of a publicly-listed company that owns a project with a defined gold resource that it is attempting to grow via exploration. If everything goes well and the project can be drilled/engineered/permitted to the point where it makes sense to enter the mine construction phase, it most likely will be 5-10 years before the project is generating any revenue from gold production. Consequently, changes in the price of gold this year are irrelevant. What matters is what the price of gold and the cost of mining gold will be in 5-10 years’ time, which, of course, are complete unknowns.

The reason that the stocks of exploration-stage juniors are often viewed as providing leverage to metal prices is that the general desire to speculate tends to rise during upward price trends and fall during downward price trends. In particular, the further an upward price trend progresses, the greater will become the propensity for market participants to take risk in their efforts to profit from the trend. And consequently, the greater will become the popularity of relatively risky stocks.

“Market participants” in the above paragraph refers not only to the general public, but also to professional traders/investors and the managers of larger companies within the industry. Almost everyone gets more excited as the upward price trend matures, which is why a huge amount of money ends up being wasted (directed towards ill-conceived investments) during the latter stages of booms.

This also explains why many exploration-stage junior mining stocks do very little during the early and even the middle stages of upward trends in metal prices. A gold mining company that is more than 5 years away from producing gold, or more likely will never actually produce any gold, is not worth any more with a current gold price of $2500/oz than it would be with a current gold price of $1500/oz, because the current gold price is irrelevant to its valuation. It is the current producer, not the possible producer many years into the future, that can offer genuine leverage to changes in spot metal prices.

A related point is that if you own shares of a profitable gold producer then you have a stake in a real business, but if you own shares of an exploration-stage gold mining company then what you have is a stake in a story, not a real business. It’s important to understand what you own. If you own a stake in a real business then you potentially could make money from dividends, but if you own a stake in a story then you will only make money if other people become more bullish on the story and therefore become willing to buy you out at a higher price.

We expect that as the cyclical bull market in gold mining stocks becomes more obvious, the general desire to speculate in gold mining stocks will start to ramp up. However, the recent price action suggests that the start of the speculative ramp-up may still be at least a few months away.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary published at www.speculative-investor.com]

Gold is no longer money in the true meaning of the word*, but it still trades more like a currency than a consumable commodity and therefore should be analysed as a currency. In fact, in a currency hierarchy we would put gold at the top, then the US$, then a big drop to the euro, then another big drop the other major currencies. Consequently, it makes sense to analyse markets in gold terms as well as in terms of the US$ and other currencies, which is something we do regularly. For example, we pay close attention to the performances of the S&P500 Index (SPX) and the Spot Commodity Index (GNX) in gold terms. Now we are going to look at one aspect of the relationship between commodity prices in US$ terms and commodity prices in gold terms.

The following chart compares the general level of commodity prices in US$ terms (as represented by GNX) with the general level of commodity prices in gold terms (as represented by the GNX/gold ratio). The point we want to highlight today is that since 1995, GNX has made cycle lows in US$ terms and gold terms at the same time. These important lows are indicated by the vertical blue lines drawn on the chart.

Each of the lows in GNX and GNX/gold indicated by the vertical blue lines coincided with a recession and/or some form of debt crisis. Specifically, the April-2020 low coincided with the COVID crisis/recession, the January-2016 low coincided with the climax of the debt crisis in the US shale-oil sector, the late-2011 low coincided with the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis, the early-2009 low coincided with the climax of the Global Financial Crisis, the January-2007 low coincided with the climax of the initial phase of the US housing/mortgage bust, the early-2002 low coincided with the collapse of the dot.com equity bubble and the end of the 2001 recession, and the late-1998 low coincided with the climax of the Russian debt crisis and LTCM blow-up.

If past is prologue, then GNX won’t bottom in US$ terms until it has bottomed in gold terms. So, has GNX bottomed relative to gold?

As mentioned above, in the past the GNX/gold ratio has bottomed in parallel with a recession and/or some form of debt crisis, both of which are likely outcomes within the next 12 months but neither of which has happened during the current cycle. Therefore, there’s a good chance that the bottom for GNX still lies ahead and that the recent commodity rally is a countertrend move within an on-going cyclical decline.

*Money is defined by its function, not its physical characteristics. It is the general medium of exchange or a very commonly used medium of exchange within an economy. This means that if something is money it will be readily accepted by almost everybody in payment for goods, services, debts and assets. Other definitions have been concocted in an attempt to make the case that gold is still money, but all of these definitions are impractical.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a commentary published last week at www.speculative-investor.com.]

In the 11th March Weekly Update we noted that the rise in the US$ gold price in the face of tight US monetary policy and high (by the standards of the past decade) real US interest rates implied concern about what’s likely to happen to the US$ in the future. We went on to write:

“At the moment this concern probably has more to do with the US government’s debt quantity spiralling out of control than the risk of the US economy entering recession in the near future. The underlying cause of concern, we suspect, is that the current administration appears to be willing to borrow/spend with complete abandon in its efforts to retain power, and there is no evidence that limiting the pace of government debt expansion is a priority on the other side of the political aisle.”

As an example of what was being done to boost his re-election prospects, we mentioned the $10,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers that had just been proposed by President Biden. Here are some additional examples from the past month:

1) A new rule has expanded the definition of a “Public Assistance Household”, which, in turn, expands the number of households eligible for Supplemental Security Income (SSI). The new rule will go into effect on 30th September-2024 (about one month prior to the election) and probably will increase the number of SSI recipients from 7.5M to more than 40M.

2) Government Sponsored Enterprise (GSE) Freddie Mac has put forward a proposal that would enable it to buy second lien mortgages. As explained in the article posted HERE:

“The aim is for Freddie to start buying fixed-rate second liens potentially by this summer, giving borrowers a way to tap an estimated $32 trillion of equity built up in U.S. homes in recent years. If approved, it would open the door for more borrowers to extract cash from their homes, without having to refinance at current 30-year fixed mortgage rates of about 7.2%.”

If Freddie Mac’s proposal goes ahead it could inject as much as $850B into the economy. If Fannie Mae, another GSE operating in the US home mortgage market, were to follow suit then the total amount injected could be close to $2 trillion. Therefore, this is potentially a very big deal.

3) Earlier this week President Biden announced large tariff increases on products imported from China. The tariff hikes, which include an increase from 27.5% to 102.5% (!!) on the tariff applied to China-made Electric Vehicles (EVs), are illustrated by the following graph from the Bloomberg article posted HERE.

Tariffs are paid by the buyers (ultimately US consumers in this case), not the sellers, so the main effect of this week’s tariff increases will be higher prices in the US for some products, especially products associated with the so-called “energy transition”. The hope, of course, is that even though the economic effects of this initiative probably will be negative, the optics will prove to be favourable. In other words, the hope is that the tariff change will create the general impression that the Administration is taking actions that will help the US economy even if the opposite is true. Unfortunately, there is also a lot of support for tariffs on the other side of the US political aisle.

All of the above actions will result in the popular measures of inflation (e.g. the CPI) being higher over the next couple of years than otherwise would be the case, but if it goes ahead the one that will have the biggest effect on the financial markets in both the short-term and the long-term is opening the door for GSEs to purchase second lien mortgages. As mentioned above, this could result in almost $2 trillion being injected into the US economy. The monetary injection would occur over a period of years, but if Freddie Mac’s proposal soon gets approved then the financial world will start discounting the likely effects immediately. The effects would be bearish for the US$ and bullish for most assets and commodities priced in US dollars, including gold.

[Here is a brief excerpt from a commentary published at www.speculative-investor.com on 21st April 2024]

Gold recently became extremely overbought in momentum terms against ALL major fiat currencies. For example, the following daily charts show that based on the daily RSI(14), a momentum indicator included at the bottom of each chart, gold recently became as stretched to the upside as it was at any time over the past 15 years, including at the 2011 major peak, relative to the euro, the Yen, the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. Looking at it from a different angle, in momentum terms the euro, the Yen, the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar recently became as stretched to the downside relative to gold as they have been at any time over the past 15 years.

Against the US$ gold did not become quite as stretched to the upside in momentum terms, because the US$ recently weakened by less than the other major currencies.

With gold having just hit a rare overbought extreme against all major fiat currencies, the probability is high that the gold price has either just set a multi-month price top or will soon do so. For two main reasons, however, it’s unlikely that the April-2024 extreme will mark the end of the cyclical rise in the gold price (meaning: the end of the cyclical decline in fiat currency).

The first reason is sentiment as indicated by the COT data, which still shows a healthy degree of speculator scepticism. Of particular relevance, despite gold’s spectacular recent price rise the collective net-long position of small traders (the proverbial dumb money) in gold futures remains not far from a 14-month low.

The current sentiment situation suggests that there is still a lot of scope for speculator long accumulation.

The second reason is the high probability that the fundamental backdrop as indicated by our Gold True Fundamentals Model (GTFM) will shift in gold’s favour over the next several months.

The GTFM turned bearish during the week before last due to a rise in the 10-year TIPS yield (a real interest rate proxy), but it returned to neutral last week due to the breakdown in the XLY/XLP ratio mentioned in the Stock Market section of today’s report. It stands a good chance of turning bullish in the not-too-distant future, because 1) a shift within the stock market from risk-on to risk-off has been confirmed, 2) US economic data probably will have a weakening trend, 3) the Fed (meaning: Powell) is looking for an excuse to loosen monetary policy, and 4) the Biden administration will be ‘pulling out all stops’ to make the economy appear healthy during the lead-up to the November-2024 election.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary at specuative-investor.com]

We consider gold bullion and the S&P500 Index (SPX) to be effectively at opposite ends of an investment seesaw, with the SPX doing better when confidence in money, central banking and government is rising and gold doing better when confidence in money, central banking and government is falling. As discussed in a few TSI commentaries and blog posts over the past two years (for example, HERE), our investment seesaw concept was part of the inspiration for the Synchronous Equity and Gold Price Model (SEGPM) created by Dietmar Knoll.

In general terms, the SEGPM uses historical data to define a quantitative relationship between the SPX, the US$ gold price and the US money supply. More specifically, it is based on the fact that adding the SPX to 1.5-times the US$ gold price (and applying a scaling factor) has, over the long-term, resulted in a number that tracks the US money supply. Consequently, it indicates the extent to which the combination of the US stock market and gold is currently under/over-valued compared to the money supply and can provide clues regarding likely future price levels for gold and the SPX. For example, a forecast of likely future levels for the SPX and the money supply would project a likely future level for the US$ gold price.

The following monthly chart shows our version of the SEGPM. On this chart, the red line is US True Money Supply (TMS) and the blue line is the Gold-SPX Model (the sum of the S&P500 Index and 1.5-times the US$ gold price, multiplied by a scaling factor).

The Model’s current message is that at today’s levels of the money supply and the SPX, the gold price (around US$2150) is in the right ballpark. A much higher ‘fair value’ for gold would require a larger money supply and/or a lower SPX. For example, if the money supply were 5% larger and the SPX were around 4200 (about 20% lower than it is today), the Model would indicate a ‘fair value’ for gold of around US$3200/oz.

In the middle of last year (the last time we discussed the Gold-SPX Model) we thought that the low-$3000s for the US$ gold price was a plausible target for the first half of this year. While it is not out of the question that this target will be reached during the first half of this year, this is no longer a likely scenario because the SPX has performed much better than we thought it would. However, there is a good chance that the low-$3000s will be reached before the end of this year.

[This blog post is a brief excerpt from a commentary published at speculative-investor.com last week]

The combination of the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (NOI) and the yield curve, our two favourite high-frequency leading indicators of US recession, has been warning of imminent recession since September-2023. Clearly, the warning has not been timely in that no recession has materialised yet. Furthermore, a month ago we noted that while the message of the yield curve was unchanged, the NOI had just risen by enough to move well above its recession demarcation level of 48. Although this did not cancel its recession warning (it would have to move above 55 to do so), January’s rise to 52.5 was unexpected. Have subsequent data provided useful new clues?

The answer is yes and no. The following monthly chart shows that the NOI turned back down in February, meaning that its recession warning is intact. At the same time, the SPX made a new all-time high as recently as Monday 4th March. As previously advised, it would be unprecedented for the SPX to make a new 52-week high AFTER the official recession start time.

This means that recession warnings remain in place, but the earliest time for the start of a recession has been pushed out again. Specifically, the March-2024 new high for the SPX suggests that a recession will not start any sooner than May-2024.

By our reckoning, during the first half of 2022 the US economy entered the bust phase of the economic boom-bust cycle caused by monetary inflation (rapid monetary inflation causes a boom that inevitably is followed by a bust as the receding monetary tide exposes the boom-time mal-investments). The bust phase almost always culminates in a recession, although it doesn’t have to.

So far, the performances of commodity prices in both US$ terms and gold terms are consistent with an economy in the bust phase, in that the GSCI Spot Commodity Index (GNX) made a 2-year low in US$ terms in December-2023 and currently is near a 3-year low in gold terms. The following daily chart shows GNX in gold terms. What’s not consistent with the bust phase are credit spreads, which have returned to their boom-time levels. Note that the narrowness of credit spreads and the strong upward trend in the stock market are linked, in that they are both symptomatic of a widespread view that a new boom will begin without a preceding severe economic downturn.

The above-mentioned conflict will have to be resolved over the months ahead by credit spreads widening substantially in response to evidence of economic weakness or by the prices of industrial commodities rising substantially in response to evidence that a new boom has been ignited. We think that the former is by far the more likely outcome.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary at speculative-investor.com]

The HUI peaked at over 600 way back in 2011 with the gold price about $100 lower than it is today. However, this provides no information whatsoever regarding the HUI’s current value or upside potential. The reason is that the average cost of mining gold is much higher now than it was in 2011. Due to the ever-increasing cost of mining gold, over time it takes a progressively higher gold price to justify the same level for the HUI. Putting it another way, due to the increasing costs of mining gold and building new gold mines, the price of the average gold mining share is in a long-term downward trend relative to the price of gold. An implication is that the HUI isn’t necessarily cheap today just because it happens to be more than 60% below its 2011 level.

Over periods of two years or less, however, the ratio of a gold mining index such as the HUI to the price of gold bullion can be indicative of whether gold stocks are cheap or expensive. This is because the average cost of mining gold usually doesn’t change by a lot over periods of less than two years.

The following daily chart of the HUI/gold ratio suggests that at the moment they are cheap. In particular, the chart shows that at the end of last week the HUI/gold ratio was near the bottom of its 2-year range — very close to where it bottomed in September-2022 and October-November-2023.

This doesn’t mean that a substantial rally is about to begin. On the contrary, in the absence of a major geopolitical scare we doubt that there will be anything more than a countertrend rebound over the next few weeks. This is because the risk-on trend is still very much intact in the stock market, the gold/oil ratio has begun to trend downward due to temporary strength in the oil market and a downward correction in the bond market has not yet run its course. What it means is that in the short-term there is not much additional scope for gold mining stocks to weaken relative gold.

By the way, we did not expect that the HUI/gold ratio would re-visit its 2022-2023 lows at this time. Our expectation was for a normal correction from the late-December high, which would have taken the HUI/gold ratio no lower than its 40-day MA (the blue line on the chart) before the short-term upward trend resumed.

Gold mining stocks also look cheap at the moment relative to general mining stocks. This is evidenced by the following chart, which shows that the GDX/XME ratio has almost dropped back to its lows of 2022 and 2023 even though gold has been trending upward relative to the Industrial Metals Index (GYX) since the first half of 2022. The comparison of the GDX/XME ratio and the gold/GYX ratio suggests that gold stocks have some catching up to do.

A cycle peak for the GDX/XME ratio is ‘due’ this year, so the catching-up should begin soon. We suspect that gold mining stocks will reach their next cycle peaks relative to general mining stocks in the same way that a character in an Ernest Hemmingway novel described how he went bankrupt: “Gradually and then suddenly.”

So, a reasonable argument can be made that gold mining stocks, as a group, are cheap right now. At least, on an intermediate-term basis they are cheap relative to gold bullion and general mining stocks. This provides no information about likely performance over the next few weeks but creates a good set-up for large gains to be made within the next six months.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary at speculative-investor.com]

The year-over-year growth rate of the US CPI was reported last Thursday to be 3.4%. This was 0.3% higher than the number reported for the preceding month and 0.2% higher than the average forecast, but the overall picture (refer to the chart below) is unchanged. The downward trend that began in June of 2022 is intact and we expect that the 2023 low will be breached during the first quarter of this year. However, the main purpose of this discussion is not to delve into the details of the latest CPI calculation but to debunk the persistent idea that the price inflation of 2020-2022 was mainly due to supply disruptions.

The idea that the price inflation of 2020-2022 was transitory and mainly due to supply disruptions is absurd, but many smart people continue to tout this wrongheaded notion. Based on the above chart a reasonable argument can be made that the rapid PACE of inflation (currency depreciation) was transitory, but not the inflation itself. Let’s consider what would have happened if disrupted supply actually had been the dominant driver the high “inflation” of the past few years.

The following chart shows the price of natural gas in Europe. This is an example of what happens when a supply disruption is the main cause of a large price rise. After the supply issue is resolved, the price falls back to near where it was prior to the disruption.

By the way, there are many commodities that over the past few years experienced spectacular price rises due to disrupted supply followed by equally spectacular price declines. We could, for instance, make the same point using a price chart of oil, wheat or coal.

The next chart shows the US Consumer Price Index (the index itself, as opposed to a rate of change). This chart makes the point that on an economy-wide basis, NONE of the currency depreciation of 2020-2022 has been relinquished. In fact, prices in general continue to rise, just at a slower pace.

It’s happening this way because the main driver of the inflation was a huge increase in the money supply combined with a huge increase in government deficit spending. In effect, all of the purchasing power loss that has occurred to date has been locked in and the best that people can expect from here is for their money to lose purchasing power at a reduced pace. In this respect the inflation is operating the same way as compound interest, except that instead of getting interest on interest people are experiencing cost-of-living increases on top of previous cost-of-living increases.

So, when someone tells you that supply disruptions were the main reason for the large general increase in prices, ask them why the general level of prices didn’t drop after the supply disruptions went away. And why are we now getting more price increases on top of the price increases of the past?

[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary at speculative-investor.com]

Over the past few hundred years there has been a relationship between the extent of global military conflict and secular trends in commodity prices, with secular upward trends in commodity prices coinciding with increases in both the frequency and amplitude of military conflict. We’ve covered this topic in the past, but not recently (the most recent discussion was in 2017). Due to what has happened over the past two years, this is a good time for a revisit.

In his book “War Cycles Peace Cycles”, Richard Kelly Hoskins discussed the aforementioned relationship and presented a chart similar to the one displayed below. The chart depicts the secular trends in commodity prices over the past 260 years. Hoskins explained that most of the important military conflicts occurred during the up phases on the chart, and therefore referred to the secular commodity-price uptrends as “war cycles”. The secular commodity-price downtrends were termed “peace cycles”.

A plausible explanation for why long-term advances in commodity prices are accompanied by a general increase in military conflict is that war leads to more monetary inflation, government spending and government intervention in the economy, as well as large-scale resource wastage and supply disruptions — the perfect recipe for higher commodity prices. In addition, when structures get destroyed by war, the commodities that are embedded in these structures are destroyed and eventually get replaced as part of a rebuilding process, causing a large temporary increase in commodity demand. There is also a feedback mechanism whereby military conflict and the associated monetary inflation bring about higher commodity prices, while higher commodity prices add to international tensions and increase the probability of military conflict.

A new “war cycle” began with the secular low for commodity prices in 1999 and has been marked, to date, by the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars, the nebulous “War on Terror”, the “Arab Spring” uprisings, the overthrow of Libya’s government, the rise of the Islamic State organisation, an initial increase in tensions between “the West” and Russia in 2008 related to the expansion of NATO (in particular, talk of adding Ukraine and Georgia to NATO) and culminating in the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, a long and devastating war in Yemen involving Yemeni factions and Saudi Arabia, a war in Syria, China’s provocative expansion in the South China Sea, a further increase in tensions between the West and Russia leading to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Israel-Hamas war that began in October-2023 and the recent Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

At this stage the current war cycle has lasted about 25 years, while the average length of a war cycle during the period covered by the above chart is 33 years. Therefore, the historical record indicates that if the current cycle is close to the average length then we can ‘look forward’ to another 8 years or so of rising commodity prices and increasing geopolitical conflict.

[This blog post is an excerpt from a commentary published at speculative-investor.com about one week ago]

The latest calculation of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, an indicator of “inflation”, was reported on Friday morning (22nd December) in the US. The following chart shows that the latest number extended the downward trend in the index’s year-over-year (YOY) growth rate, which is now 2.6%. Moreover, the “core” version of the PCE Index, which apparently is the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, has risen at an annualised rate of only 1.9% over the past six months. This essentially means that the Fed’s inflation target has been reached. What does this mean for the financial markets?

An implication of the on-going downward trends in popular indicators of inflation is that the Fed will slash its targeted interest rates next year. That’s a large part of the reason why the stock and bond markets have been celebrating over the past two months.

It’s important to understand, however, that the markets already have priced in a decline in the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) from 5.50% to 3.75% (the equivalent of seven 0.25% rate cuts). This means that for the rate-cut celebrations to continue, the financial world will have to find a reason to price in more than seven rate cuts for next year. Not only that, but for the rate-cut celebrations to continue in the stock market the financial world will have to find a reason to price in more than seven 2024 rate cuts while also finding a reason to price in sufficient economic strength to enable double-digit corporate earnings growth during 2024. That’s a tall order, to put it mildly.

Our view is that the Fed will end up cutting the FFR to around 2.0% by the end of next year, meaning that we are expecting about twice as much rate cutting as the markets currently have priced in. The thing is, our view is predicated on the US economy entering recession within the next few months, and Fed rate-cutting in response to emerging evidence of recession has never been bullish for the stock market. On the contrary, the largest stock market declines tend to occur while the Fed is cutting its targeted rates in reaction to signs of economic recession.

Fed rate cuts in response to emerging evidence of recession are, however, usually bullish for Treasury securities and gold. That’s why we expect the upward trends in the Treasury and gold markets to continue for many more months, with, of course, corrections along the way.

[This is a modified excerpt from a recent commentary at speculative-investor.com]

Gold bullion could be viewed as insurance or a portfolio hedge or a long-term investment or a long-term store of value, but a gold mining stock is none of these.

Gold mining stocks always should be viewed as either short-term or intermediate-term trades/speculations. During gold bull markets, you scale into them when they are oversold or consolidating and you scale out of them when they are overbought. The scaling in/out process obviates the need for accurate short-term timing, which is important because, as anyone who has followed the sector for many years will know, gold mining stocks tend to go down a lot more and up a lot more than initially expected.

We include the following chart in a TSI commentary about once per year to remind our readers why gold mining stocks always should be viewed as trades. The chart shows more than 100 years of history of gold mining stocks relative to gold bullion, with gold mining stocks represented by the Barrons Gold Mining Index (BGMI) prior to 1995 and the HUI thereafter. The overarching message here is that gold mining stocks have been trending downward relative to gold bullion since 1968, that is, for 55 years and counting.

We’ve explained in the past that the multi-generational downward trend in the gold mining sector relative to gold is a function of the current monetary system and therefore almost certainly will continue for as long as the current monetary system remains in place. The crux of the matter is that as well as resulting in more mal-investment within the broad economy than the pre-1971 monetary system, the current monetary system results in more mal-investment within the gold mining sector.

Mal-investment in the gold mining sector involves ill-conceived acquisitions, mine expansions and new mine developments that turn out to be unprofitable, building mines in places where the political risk is high, and gearing-up the balance-sheet when times are good. It leads to the destruction of wealth over the long term. Physical gold obviously isn’t subject to value loss from mal-investment, hence the long-term downward trend in gold mining stocks relative to gold bullion.

The difference between the gold mining sector and most other parts of the economy is that the biggest booms in the gold mining sector (the periods when the bulk of the mal-investment occurs) generally coincide with busts in the broad economy, while the biggest busts in the gold mining sector (the periods when the ‘mal-investment chickens come home to roost’) generally coincide with booms in the broad economy. The developed world, including the US and much of Europe, currently is in the bust phase of the economic cycle, meaning that we are into a multi-year period when a boom is likely in the gold mining sector.

[This blog post is an excerpt for a commentary published at speculative-investor.com on 19th November 2023]

There was a government-spending-fuelled burst of economic activity in the US during the third quarter of this year that led to a high GDP growth number being reported for the quarter, but signs of weakness are now appearing in coincident economic indicators.

The most important of the aforementioned signs is the rise in Continuous Claims for Unemployment Insurance. With reference to the following weekly chart, Continuous Claims bottomed in September-2022, moved higher into April of this year, dropped back to a higher low during September and has just confirmed an upward trend by moving above its April-2023 high. This is consistent with our view that a US recession will begin before the end of this year, although based on the historical record the recession start date won’t become official until the second half of next year.

Another sign is the decline in the year-over-year (YOY) growth rate of Industrial Production (IP) to negative 0.70%, the lowest level since February-2021. The YOY growth rate of IP in October-2023 is similar to where it was in the month before the start of the 2001 recession and is well below where it was at the start of the 2007-2009 recession. Below is a chart of this coincident economic indicator.

It probably will be many months before the US coincident economic data become consistently weak. In the meantime, we expect to see — and should see, if our current outlook is correct — a gradual increase in the proportion of economic statistics that are worse than generally expected. We also expect to see a gradual shift away from the “soft landing” narrative (the belief that the US economy will make it through the monetary tightening without a recession) towards the recession narrative.

A few weeks ago (refer to the 30th October Weekly Update) we noted early signs that the financial world was starting to move away from the soft landing scenario. One of the indicators that we are tracking to check that this shift remains in progress is the January-2025 Fed Funds Futures (FFF) contract, a daily chart of which is displayed below. Note that the line on this chart moves in the opposite direction to interest rate expectations.

The substantial downward move on this chart from early-May through to mid-October reflects a major increase in the popularity of the soft landing scenario, while the relatively small upward move over the past few weeks is tentative evidence that a shift towards general belief in a less innocuous economic outcome has begun.

At this time, the soft landing narrative remains dominant. That’s why the SPX has rebounded to within 2% of its high for the year and the January-2025 FFF contract has retraced only a small part of its May-October decline. However, we expect that belief in a soft landing will dissipate over the next six months, leading to a substantial decline in the stock market and a substantial rise in the US$ gold price.