[This post is an excerpt from a recent TSI commentary]
Over the past four months the Fed has added about $400B to its balance sheet. To put this into perspective, since early September the Fed has expanded its balance sheet at an annualised rate of around 30%. According to the Fed, the purpose of this dramatic monetary expansion was to address a temporary liquidity issue in the “repo” market. The question is: If the Fed is dealing with only a temporary shortage of liquidity in the market for short-term money, why did it introduce a program in mid-October to supplement the temporary injections of “repo” money with $60B/month of permanent money?
The answer is that the Fed is dealing with something more than a temporary shortage of liquidity in the market for short-term money. The fact that the Fed sees the need to remove $60B/month of Treasury supply from the market in addition to the Treasury supply that is being removed on a temporary basis via “repo” operations implies that the overall demand for Treasury debt is falling short of Treasury supply at the Fed’s targeted interest rates. Looking from a different angle, it is clear that at current interest rates the global financial system wants more dollars and less Treasury debt. The Fed is accommodating this desire by increasing the supply of dollars to the market and reducing the supply of government debt that must be absorbed by the market.
The key phrase in the above paragraph is “at current interest rates”. If the supply of and the demand for money and credit were permitted to balance naturally then interest rates would now be much higher. However, the Fed doesn’t want supply and demand to strike a natural balance; the Fed has decided that it wants the price of credit at a certain level and that it will use its power to create and destroy money to override natural market forces. In this regard the current situation is unusual only in degree, because the Fed has been attempting to override market forces for more than 100 years.
The US Federal government is not about to slow the pace at which it emits new debt. On the contrary, the rate of growth in government debt supply looks set to rise. Therefore, one of two things will have to happen if interest rates are to stay near current low levels: The Fed will have to keep absorbing Treasury supply at a rapid pace or the market’s desire to hold Treasury debt will have to increase substantially. The latter could occur in response to a sizable decline in the US stock market or a crisis outside the US.
Within a week of its mid-October announcement we wrote that the Fed’s promise to inject $60B/month of new ‘permanent’ money was a potential game-changer, in that it could extend the current cycle (prolong the equity bull market) and lead to more “price inflation” than earlier programs. We continue to think that a cycle extension could be on the cards, but if so the recession warnings that were generated by leading indicators during the second half of last year must disappear within the next couple of months.
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