The job of a judge or juror is to impartially weigh the evidence and arguments put forward by both sides in an effort to determine which side has the stronger case. The job of a lawyer is to argue for one side, regardless of whether that side happens to be right or wrong. As a speculator it is important to think like a judge or a juror, not a lawyer.
Unlike a lawyer, a speculator can change sides ‘mid-stream’ if necessary to keep himself on the side favoured by the current evidence. There is no need for him to stick to a position come what may. However, changing sides is easier said than done, which is why so many speculators and commentators aren’t able to do it. Rather than let the evidence determine their stance, they adopt a stance and then look for confirming evidence. If they come across conflicting evidence, they downplay it. They aren’t aware of it, but their goal is to prove a particular case rather than align themselves with the strongest case.
Sometimes the case that a speculator desperately wants to prove also happens to be the case supported by the strongest evidence, enabling him to make large gains. However, if he continues to think like a lawyer he will eventually run into the problem that the weight of evidence shifts. After the inevitable shift happens he will steadfastly maintain his earlier position and lose whatever advantage he previously gained from being on the right side of the market.
In my speculations and financial-market writings I’m sometimes guilty of thinking like a lawyer. That’s why I developed the gold model (the Gold True Fundamentals Model – GTFM) that was discussed in a blog post last month. This model prevents my own biases and opinions from getting in the way when assessing whether the fundamental backdrop is bullish or bearish for gold.
The bottom line is that there is never a requirement for a speculator to defend a position. Unlike a lawyer, he is free to change with the evidence.
About Steven Saville
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